I am going to try not to get too esoteric or philosophical. Lets eschew things like success as defined by making people happy, bettering the world, adding good ideas/concepts to the game design space, or all sorts of totally unmeasurable things like that. For the purposes of this discussion, lets focus a little more on the economic/business success.
TIME: How long does an MMO have to operate to be a success? This question came up when my wife and I were talking about a few teetering MMOs (Age of Conan, Warhammer, Champions Online) and a few MMOs that have already been shut down (The Sims Online, Auto Assault, Earth and Beyond, Matrix Online, Tabula Rasa.). We both agreed upon 5 years.
MMOs take at least 2-3 years to develop, so 5 years is at least double the minimum development time. That seems fair. Some MMOs take a lot longer, but that is generally for reasons other than just the creation of the game (running out of money, small companies that have to shift resources to other projects, etc.). It takes about 5 years for a tv show to reach 100 episodes, and that is considered one of the key break points for whether a show is a true success (and is also really important for being sellable into syndication).
There’s something about 5 years. Its 1 more than it takes to go through college and high school. It is half a decade. I don’t have a purely numerical reason for this. 5 years just seemed right to us.
POPULATION: How many players/subscribers does an MMO need to be successful? On this issue I think it heavily depends. For a big budget, major publisher MMO, I think the baseline is 100,000. But more realistically, if you aren’t over 250,000 that’s pretty disappointing. I think 1 million is the mark for a blockbuster success. And I’ll also add this: if you make a niche title that monetizes itself well with a good business model, I think you can declare success at well under 100k players – even if you had a mega budget from a big publisher. Unfortunately, they might not agree.
For an indie developer, I think the number is much lower. Depending on the size of your staff, I think success comes at a couple thousand players. Through whatever business model you use, if you average $15 a month per player you only need 333 players per staff member to average $50k per year per staff member (assuming a salary range of $30-70k depending on experience.) If your box sales cover your development and servers, that’s pretty darn good. With that math, a 10 person team only needs 4,000 players to do pretty well.
And that’s really all you need to be profitable in the long term – pay your staff, pay yourself, then save for the development of the next game.
Your opinions?
Discussion