Great point! Just like an incumbent politician has an overwhelming advantage in getting re-elected over a challenger, so too does the incumbent MMO champion WoW which has the same advantage. What company will be able to afford the capital to create the next big thing in MMOs? Probably only Blizzard itself which is sad.

Having no serious competition coupled with exorbitant development costs means that originality and innovation in MMOs will suffer.

As to the point that WoW is a like a social networking site. I suppose that may be true. But why is WoW universally seen as having the worst community in MMO history? Is it possible to have a healthy and robust social networking feel to your MMO but with a horrifically poor community of players?

That is why any game that tries to compete directly with WoW has a seriously extreme challenge ahead of them. You not only have to make a better game, but you have to make a game that is SO MUCH BETTER it is worth it for someone to potentially lose contact with their network of WoW gamer friends.

This is why non-subscription business models make so much sense. They allow people to try the new game for free, and it makes it easier for them to convince their WOW friends to at least give it a shot. The barrier to entry is small, and thus it is POSSIBLY to crack that huge social network wall WoW has.

I think that is how games like Runes of Magic have been able to reac 4-5+ million users.

WOW these days has more in common with a social networking site then anything else, I see it as been like facebook with more game elements. I think the vast majority of the players are there for social reasons – and that isn’t something a “game” can compete with. So in short I think for anything that calls itself a “game” to try and dethrone WOW is just asking for failure.